European Broadband Forecasts
Regional Broadband Forecasts for Europe to 2030
Where will fixed broadband be in 2030?
Through leveraging our in-house European Kilometre Grid (EKG) and 2011-2022 regional broadband availability timeline, we project availability of FTTP, DOCSIS 3.x and gigabit-capable (VHCN) coverage across Europe, all the way up to 2030.
Granular and Relevant Inputs
Broadband Data
- NUTS3 Granularity
- 2011 - 2022 Timeline
- FTTP, DOCSIS 3.x, Gigabit-capable
- Sourced directly from national regulators and ISPs
Land Use
- Land Use Categorization
- Urban/Rural Distinction
- Sqkm Granularity
Demographics
- Population Densities
- Sqkm Granularity
Regulation & Policy
- Evaluation & Assessment of National Policies
- European Commission DESI and Connectivity Toolbox Targets
Using our European Kilometre Grid allows allows us to model based on the most accurate demographics possible, right at square-kilometre level. Land use, connectivity indexes and a review of policy implementation allow us to fromulate scenarios based on past performance and current reality.
Proven Model
Benjamin Gompertz created the Gompertz model in 1825, initally to understand tumor growth and human populations. Two hundred years later, it is used to model the diffusion of technologies of technologies through society. As an asymmetric logistic growth model, it foresees high rates of adoption for a new technology upon attaining mass appeal. However, its pace considerably decelerates once high levels of penetration are reached, representing the tendency of technologies to diffuse at a progressively slower rate within a diminishing segment of society resistant (often due to factors outside their control) to adoption.
The Gompertz model allows Expert Intelligence to project broadband coverage reliably to 2030.
Model Scenarios
Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
No Factors Scenario | Broadband coverage time line without additional factors. |
Constrained Rollout Scenario | Broadband coverage timeline, land use, national ambition, EC surveying and digitalisation ratings. |
Baseline Scenario | Broadband coverage time series, in combination with land use and national ambition. |
Regional Outputs
We offer regional outputs and country-level aggregations of FTTP, DOCSIS 3.1 and VHCN coverage for all years up to 2030. Outputs are available at NUTS3 and EKG (square kilometre) level.
Understand where your market will be by the end of the decade to inform your decision-making and modelling.
To see estimated 2030 forecasts, click on one of the countries below:
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